Sunday, April 22, 2012

YPF, and another mistake /// YPF y otro error

This week we saw the government of Argentina expropriate a private Spanish company called Repsol from its right to own YPF. What made matters worse is that they sent a branch of the army to escort the Repsol employees to avoid any resistance of being removed from their workforce.
In the last 12 months the government of Cristina Fernandez of Kirchner has closed all imports, and to foreign companies such as HP and Dell the administration said that for every dollar that they imported they had to export another dollar, which meant that they had to mount factories in Argentina. Dell said thank you very much and closed their local office.
The Obama Administration told the Kirchner administration that they would review and reconsider the favorable duties provided to Argentina.
In the past days Mrs. Kirchner administration was told by the Obama administration that this idea of taking over YPF and remove and rescind Repsol rights to YPF was not acceptable.
Let us analyze what the recent history about YPF. In the 90s President Menem was obsessed with privatizing government run companies.
He shoved down the Argentine Congress the privatization of the phone company, the merchant company, the oil company, the utilities, the water company, the railroads, the national airline, even the interstate road system. Menem become extremely wealthy at the expense of denationalizing all the government owned and run companies, receiving kickbacks in the process.
A little over a decade later let us look at the privatizations, there is no competition on the phone system because of the way he setup the bidding, the national airline was totally defunded and was eventually  taken over by the government, the railroad is in a total state of disrepair, an they’ve had two major accidents in the last twelve months in the Buenos Aires area with many deaths, the oil company Repsol, owner of YPF pushed Argentina from an exporting nation to one who needs to import just to satisfy its local consumption because of lack of investment, and the list goes on.
During the privatizations they gave the key of the henhouse to the fox.
Mrs. Kirchner and her followers think this idea of re-nationalizing a private company is the right thing to do. Even former president Menem, who is a senator, said that he is in favor of the law.Argentina has not had, and does not have a separate judicial power. It is just an appendix of the Executive branch.
The European Community is extremely upset with this one sided decision. The Argentine government doesn’t seem to understand that they will be global ramifications to a unilateral decision such as this one. They are even asking the other nations of the G-20 to expel Argentina from this group.
The Kirchner administration is under the illusion that Argentina is Venezuela, and that they can be as provocative as Chavez is. The Venezuelan president is not a beloved figure in the US and in many other places, but Venezuela has something that the world wants, oil. Argentina has oil but not enough to supply the market, or make a dent in it.
Mrs. Kirchner, in every single opportunity she has quotes her husband. She should remember that her husband was in favor with the privatization of YPF. Back then she was a state senator in the province of Santa Cruz, and she said that it would be the right thing to do.
Argentina is sinking in debt, after years of surpluses, and as the coffers are starting to run empty, they are trying to find different places where the government to lay its hands. They wasted money left and right, lived beyond their means, and bought elections, by financing and maintaining huge sections of the population with big subsidies to maintain a class of non-workers, paying people for having multiple kids, demonstrating in the government acts in support of this administration, and blocking any opposition. It seems that the chickens are starting to come to roost.
Hopefully the people who supported years and years of corrupt governments will wake up and make the right decision. I have recently written that Argentina has always blamed the rest of the world for its shortcomings, they need to grow up and accept responsibility for their own wrong decisions and mismanagement.

Esta semana fuimos testigos de como el gobierno argentino expropio a la compañia española Repsol del 57 % de sus acciones de YPF. Lo peor de todo es que el gobierno mandó a la gendarmerie a sacar a los empleados de Repsol para evitar medidas de represalias.
En los últimos 12 meses el gobierno de Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner cerró las importaciones, y les dijo a empresas extranjeras como HP y Dell que por cada dolar que importaran deberian exportar otro dolar, lo que equivalia a montar fabricas en la Argentina. Dell le dijo al goberno muchas gracias y cerró sus oficinas locales.
La administración del presidente Obama le dijo a la al goberno argentino que por las medidas de cerrar la importación iba a reveer y reconsiderar las tarifas favorables que tiene la Argentina con EEUU.
Con respect al caso YPF en los pasados dias la administracion Obama le ha comunicado al gobierno argentine que no es aceptable lo que hicieron.
Tenes que analizar minuciosamente la reciente historia de YPF. En los noventas el Presidente Menem estaba obsesionado con privatizar las compañias estatales.
Forzo al congreso a pasar las privatizaciones de ENTEL, ELMA, YPF, Obras Sanitarias, Ferrocarriles Argentinos, Aerolineas Argentinas; llegó al extremo de privatizar las rutas nacionales. Al privatizar y en definitiva desnazionalizar todas las empresas estatales, Menem se volvio muy rico, recibiendo coimas en el proceso.
Dado que ha pasado una decada desde las privatizaciones no hay competencia en el sistema telefonico porque no hubo licitaciones abiertas en donde podia existir la libre competencia, Aerolineas Argentinas fue vaciada de sus capitales, no hubo modernizacion de la flota y ha sido tomada nuevamente por el gobierno argentino, los ferrocarriles estan en un estado absoluto de descuido, al punto de haber existido 2 grandes accidentes en Buenos Aires con muchos muertos y centenares de heridos, la compañia Repsol, mayorista de las acciones de YPF transformó a la Argentina de un país exportador a uno importador de hidrocarburos para su consumo local, y podemos seguir con la lista.
Durante las privatizaciones se le dio la llave del gallinero al zorro.
La Sra. Kirchner y sus seguidores piensan que la renacionalización de una empresa privada es lo correcto. Hasta el ex-presidente Menem, hoy senador, dijo estar en favor de la ley. Argentina no ha tenido, ni tiene, un poder judicial independiente, siempre ha sido un apendice, una marioneta del Poder Ejecutivo.
La Comunidad Europea esta extremadamente descontenta con esta decision. El gobierno parece no entender que va a haber medidas mundiales a una decision unilateral como esta. Estan considerando pedirle a los otros paises que forman el G-20 que Argentina sea expulsada del grupo.
La administracion Kirchner esta convencida que Argentina es Venezuela, esto es una illusion. Se piensan también que pueden ser tan agresivos como Chavez. El president venezolano no es una figura muy querida en EEUU y en otros lugares, pero Venezuela tiene algo que el mundo quiere, petroleo. Argentina tiene petroleo pero no lo sufuciente para abastecer al Mercado mundial, o para hacer una diferencia en el.
A la Sra. Kirchner le encanta citar en oportunidad que puede a su marido. Deberia recordar que su marido estaba en favor de la privatizacion de YPF, sin ir mas lejos ella, que era una senadora provincial en Santa Cruz, dijo que la privatizacion era lo correcto.
Argentina se esta hundiendo en deudas, despues de muchos años de superavits, y dado que los cofres se estan vaciando, el gobierno esta tratando de poner sus manos en todos los lugares que puede. Han malgastado a diestra y siniestra, han gastado mas de lo debido, han comprador elecciones, manteniendo grandes sectores de la poblacion con subisidios por no trabajar, subisidiando familias numerosas, asisitendo a manifestaciones en favor del gobierno, ahogando la oposicion. Da la impresion de que a cada chancho le llega su San Martin.
Uno siempre mantiene la esperanza que la gente que alimentó años y años de corrupcion comiencen a tomar decisiones acertadas. En un blog que escribí recientemente que Argentina siempre culpó al resto del mundo por sus errores, es hora de que crezcan y asuman responsabilidad de sus decisiones incorrectas y por su mal manejo.

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